Editor’s Morning Note: What correction? Evidence that it won’t happen today.
Things are good right now. Very good. And, it appears that things aren’t set to get much worse for at least another few minutes.
Whatever your take on the need for a correction1, it’s not coming today.
After all, why would things start to slip when the cost of money, an engine in today’s yield hunt, appears set for stasis?
Things are also great in the United States for public companies:
On the other side of the private-public spectrum, startups aren’t going to hurt for access to capital. After a few record quarters of raise, here are two headlines from the last day.
Wahoo! That sounds pretty good.
And that’s despite some bigger names throwing shade like an oasis:
Apple is spiking on demand for a smartphone that was met with only moderate reviews2:
Bitcoin is back over $600!
The IPO window is apparently open enough that a number of companies are finally working to give it a go:
Hell, Microsoft is now a leading open source developer.
Anything can happen.
I wanted to mark this moment in time as a note worth recalling. Things will get worse — as always — but the scale of whatever correction we will get isn’t clear. Nor it’s timing, as noted above.
Today, the markets appear as if the underlying economy United States is doing very well. That’s, at least, a modest exaggeration. Instead, the global quest for basis points has inflated asset categories that are usually aligned with material good times. So things look better than they are. And that means that we are operating on borrowed time, at least somewhat.
Minor bumps are enough right now to bend sentiment. Imagine a real 20 percent correction and what that would do.
- Negative interest rates, a re-inflation of the Chinese real estate bubble, rising PE ratios among stocks above historical norms, lackluster global GDP growth, geopolitical instability, some idiot named Trump, a massive pileup of highly-valued yet unprofitable startups, a slow IPO climate and on and on and on.
- For an Apple product, that is.